After the Patriots won the AFC East Division 11 straight seasons, the exit of Tom Brady and the emergence of Josh Allen saw the Bills capture the conference crown the past two seasons, so the last time one of those two didn’t win the AFC East was in 2008 (Dolphins).
And we can probably expect Buffalo to win the AFC East again. Furthermore, AFC East Division odds point to that distinct probability as, unless NE QB Mac Jones evolves really quickly, this division could be a runaway although September and October look very hard for Buffalo. But AFC East Division odds aren’t a crystal ball look into the Future, but numbers made by oddsmakers on who they think has the best chance to finish 1st place in the division, and with the Bills on the rise, NE and Miami rebuilding, and the Jets, the Jets, they make sense.
NFL Win Totals have slowly evolved into one of the most popular betting markets in online sportsbooks and with Sports Gambling now legal in 31 states, more and more people are getting down, with betting one of the 32 NFL teams to go Over or Under these Win Totals.
AFC East Division Season Win Totals
Buffalo Bills 11½
Last Season: 11 Wins
Miami Dolphins 8½
Last Season: 9 Wins
New England Patriots 8½
Last Season: 10 Wins
New York Jets 5½
Last Season: 4 Wins
Odds courtesy of Bet365
The Bills clinched the AFC East with a win over the Jets in Week 18. It’s their first back-to-back division championships since 1990-91.
Buffalo’s defense led the league in numerous categories, giving up the least amount of points and yards per game. pic.twitter.com/NFiB8jDezN
— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2022
Last season, the linemakers did a pretty good job with their AFC East Division Win Totals, with Buffalo (11) and Miami (9) pushing their Season Win Totals, New England (8½) going Over by 1½ Wins (10), and New York AFC (5½) finishing Under with a 4-13 record.
And with 2022 AFC East Win Totals seeing the Jets at 5½, it seems like a good betting opportunity to back the Under again with this team who might be able to win 5 times with 6 seeming like a big stretch and a 4-13, 3-14, or 2-15 season possible if all goes wrong.
Last season, the Bills won the AFC East Division with a 4-game Win streak to finish the 2021-22 Regular Season, topping 2nd-place New England by just 1 game in the win column with the Patriots ending up with the best Road record in the division (6-3).
Tua Tagovailoa and Miami (341 PF-373 PA) scored less points than they gave up but still managed to go 9-3 thanks in great part to a very strong Home Record (6-3) in Miami Gardens—but replicating that feat again this 2021-22 NFL Regular Season will be hard.
The Jets (310 PF-504 PA) ended up in the cellar of the AFC East Division last season, to no one’s great surprise, and that’s where this fumbling, bumbling, stumbling team will probably end up again this campaign. The good news for the Jets? They are 0-0 right now.
At the top NFL Betting Sites, the 2022 AFC East Division Win Totals are on the betting board, so let’s look at the numbers, analyze them, and then make some AFC East Division predictions for you TSG readers.
Buffalo Bills 11½ Wins
The Bills (6/1 to win Super Bowl LVII, BetOnline) won 11 games last year, as emerging star QB Josh Allen (Wyoming) and Buffalo ended up winning its last 4 Regular Season games to end up at 11-6 after sitting at 7-6 after its first 13 games that it played.
Last season, RB Devin Singletary and the Bills (+350 to win NFC Conference) lost to the Steelers, Titans, Jags, Colts, Patriots, and Buccaneers and went 5-1 in AFC East, beating Miami and the Jets twice and losing to the Pats in Buffalo and winning on the Road. This season, the schedule starts with a real challenge for WR Stephon Diggs and Buffalo with the NFL Season opener on Thursday, September 8 against Matt Stafford and the defending Super Bowl champ Rams at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood (NBC, 8:30 ET/5:20 PT).
And Weeks 2-6 won’t be fun either for Head Coach Sean McDermott and the team named after Buffalo Bill Cody, with the Titans at Highmark Stadium (A-Turf Titan 50) in Orchard Park, NY in Buffalo in Week 2 (ESPN) and a trip to Miami Gardens following in Week 3.
So, a 1-2 start is a possibility, as is a 3-0 or a 2-1 start for Buffalo (-235 to win AFC East) with the Rams (LAR -2½) and Tennessee both formidable opponents for New Kids On The Block Von Miller (Rams), OJ Howard (Buccaneers) the defending division champions.
In Week 4, another tough test on the Road awaits with a trip to Baltimore on Sunday, October 2 to face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens—who have a 21-game win Streak in the Preseason (19-2 ATS)—in a hard Road test for Buffalo who went 5-3 on the road in 2021.
Ben Roethlisberger retired, so the Steelers in Week 5 at Buffalo seems like an easy game for the homeboys, but it won’t be, and conventional wisdom says that the Bills will be 3-1 heading to the meeting, but a 1-3 starts is also possible vs. these tough AFC opponents. In Week 6, the last of the hard 2021-22 NFL Regular Season schedule start ends against Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City (CBS, 4:25 ET/1:25 PT), and after a Bye in Week 8, the Packers are in Buffalo in what should be a close game.
From Weeks 9-17, it seems Buffalo could go 10-0, so think before betting in this AFC East Win Totals Futures market, as although September and October look hard for the Bills (Will the Bills Win the AFC East? Yes -235, No +165), November and December aren’t bad.
In Week 9 (November 6) and Week 14 (December 11), Buffalo will face the J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets!, a team they handled twice last year and should sweep again this season. In Week 10 Minnesota visits followed by Cleveland in Week 11 in two winnable games.
The Bills (483 PF-289 PA) are at the Lions in Week 12, followed by a trip to New England on Sunday, December 1 for a night game in Foxboro, with Miami in Buffalo in Week 14 and the Bills in cold Chicago to face the Bears on Christmas Eve (CBS, 1 pm EST/10 am PST).
December may have holiday presents for Allen & Company. Buffalo is at Cincinnati in Week 17 to face Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals in another winnable game on Sunday Night Football to start the new year on Sunday, January 2 (ABC, ESPN, 8:30 ET/5:30 PT).
And then the Bills (6-3 at Home in 2021) get a chance to avenge their lone AFC East divisional loss against the Patriots on Sunday, January 8 in the Regular Season finale, and if NE has a decent season, that last game could possibly decide who wins the AFC East.
The big three. ?#GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/bp98aTER94
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) August 17, 2022
Miami Dolphins 8½ Wins
The Dolphins (40/1 to win Super Bowl LVII) somehow won 9 games last season, all because the Fish won seven straight games (Weeks 9-16) after losing the previous 7 games (Weeks 2-8) to salvage what looked like a nightmare season in South Florida.
QB Tua Tagovailoa and Miami (341 PF-373 PA) won’t be catching anyone by surprise this upcoming NFL season, and in AFC East Divisional play, Miami (+425 to win AFC East) went an impressive 4-2, sweeping the Patriots and Jets but getting swept by the Bills. AFC East Division Win Totals look a lot like 2021, with the Bills number ½ game higher than the number of games they won, the Patriots Season Win Total 1½ games less than their number of Wins with these Dolphins number ½ game less than the number they won.
And handicapping these 2022 AFC East Win Totals and making some quick gut AFC East Division Predictions, it seems Buffalo will go Over their Total with at least 12 Wins, NE and this Miami team may have trouble getting that 9th Win, with the Jets sucking again.
Miami’s losses last year were at the hands of the Bills, Raiders, Buccaneers, Colts, Jaguars, Falcons, Bills (again), and Jaguars while the Dolphins nine Wins came against New England and New York—twice each—and to Houston, Baltimore, Carolina, the Giants, and Saints.
This seems to be a team that loses to the good teams and beats the bad teams and is better at Home (+3) than they are on the Road (-2) at Dolphins Stadium (Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass) in Miami Gardens. Will these simple trends continue in 2022?
For me, the biggest game for Miami this season in terms of this Season Win Totals will be when New England pays a visit to Dolphins Stadium in the NFL Regular Season opener in Week 1, and BetOnline currently has Miami listed as a 2½-point Favorites (44½). Should Miami (-125 Moneyline) defeat the Patriots (+115), Over bettors in this market will at least be able to breathe some, but if New England goes down to the Sunshine State and ruin the party, it will be extremely hard to get to that 8½ Win Total in my opinion.
How well new addition Tyreek Hill (Chiefs) and QB Tua connect will be a key to this team’s success in 2022 and avoiding injuries and a long losing streak—like last season’s 7 games—will be important for both Futures bettors as well as this Miami team itself.
“I’m enjoying every single moment of this process…to my teammates and to the great fans of Miami, thank you guys so much for this opportunity. I promise you, The Cheetah is going to give you his all, no matter what.”
– Tyreek Hill pic.twitter.com/McYmhtjdaz
— Dolphin Nation (@Dolphin_Nation) August 16, 2022
New England Patriots 8½ Wins
The Patriots (50/1 to win Super Bowl LVII) won 10 games last season, and were the only AFC team to beat the Bills, but getting to double-digit victories again will be fairly difficult for NE, as will cashing in on the Over in their Season Team Win Total (9½, bet365).
New England (5/1 to win AFC East) is hoping QB Mac Jones can mature and with a solid defense (303 Points Allowed in 2021), anything is possible under its mastermind Head Coach Bill Belichick. Yes, Jones and the Patriots can win the AFC East Division, Bubba. The Patriots (25/1 to win AFC) were the best Road team in the division last season (6-2) and had a +7 TO Margin and aren’t the kind of team to beat themselves, so the biggest question may be what happened to their valuable Homefield Advantage in Foxboro?
Last 2021-22 NFL Regular Season, New England was a disappointing 3-5 on its Home Beantown turf, suffering Losses to Miami, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Dallas before finally earning their first Home Win in Week 7 against the lowly Jets in a 54-17 pasting.
Are the rebuilding Patriots enigmatic?
Life after Tom Brady has definitely been a challenge for this team and I see them finishing right around .500 again in the still relatively new 17-game NFL Regular Seasons with either a 9-8 or an 8-9 record.
This 2022 AFC East Win Totals number is right where it should be and it’s hard to recommend playing this particular Futures market with this team. Especially since the Bills Over and the Jets Under—they could go 0-6 in the AFC East—likely much better Futures book plays.
A pair of Patriots have made their #NFLTop100 debuts.@MikeDussault19 breaks down New England’s rankings: https://t.co/fAWNwiQrAP
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) August 15, 2022
New York Jets 5 Wins
The Jets (100/1 to win Super Bowl LVII) won only 4 games last season, and went winless in AFC East play (0-6), so the two wins apiece against AFC South (Jacksonville, Tennessee) and AFC North (Cincinnati, Houston) teams may have just have been a gridiron anomaly.
The Bills, Patriots, and Dolphins will all expect to sweep the Jets this 2022-23 NFL Regular Season and it won’t surprise anyone if they do. New York AFC will go with Zach Wilson as its starting QB with veteran Joe Flacco as their backup, and for now, Wilson’s injured. The Jets (45/1 to win AFC) are one of those NFL teams seemingly always in rebuilding mode as well as one of those teams—like the Houston Texas and the New York Giants—that other teams simply expect to beat, both at Home and on the Road.
So why is this AFC East Division Win Totals number at online sportsbooks set at 5½ Wins and not 5? Or even 4½ or 4? Where is this team going to get these 6 Wins? Let’s think. Nope, No need. This is a really bad number folks. Really bad. Bet the Under 5½.
New York AFC was outscored by 194 points last season (310 PF-504 PA), and the Jets will face all four decent teams from the AFC North—the Ravens, Browns, bengals, and Steelers—in Weeks 1-4, so an 0-4 start is very possible (and likely) at the Meadowlands. So can Gang Green beat the two cats, the Lions (Week 15) or the Jaguars (Week 16)? I think both cats will be better this year, so I honestly can’t see a Win on the Jets schedule this season and they may be the 2017 Cleveland Browns (0-17) all over again. Meow.
Too pessimistic? Too realistic maybe. The Road-pathetic Jets (20/1 to win AFC East) will have a very long season ahead of them and after a -13 TO margin season—second worst in the NFL behind the Jaguars (-20)—expect the misery index to be high for HC Robert Salah.
AND THEN THE TWITTER DOCTOR’S SAID HIS SEASON WAS OVER BUT REALLY IT WAS JUST A MINOR 2-4 WEEK INJURY #Jets pic.twitter.com/j3sv5CUC2l
— Matt O’Leary (@MattOLearyNY) August 17, 2022
AFC East Division Prediction
The AFC East Division may end up being a two-team race and looking at these AFC East Win Totals markets it seems there are only two real plays to look at—the Bills Over and the Jets with the NY Under seemingly off by at least 2 wins after much introspection.
Betting on 2022 AFC East Season Win Totals has never been easy and it often all comes down to what happens in Week 18 and we will see if Cheetah Hill has the kind of impact in the AFC East as he did playing for the Chiefs in the AFC West with his boy Pat Mahomes. These AFC East Division Win Totals seem pretty accurate, but Buffalo will be confident come November when that nasty run of the Bills starting schedule finally ends and a Purple patch may start, but getting to 12 or 13 Wins will be hard, but I think they do it.
On the other hand, the Jets entire season is a minefield with teams that may have looked like potential “W’s” probably ending up in the “L” column with New York AFC starting off with the entire tough AFC North in Weeks 1-4 and possibly done before they get started.